Only the last set of selection committee rankings matter, but man did the group make some interesting statements Tuesday both with its latest poll and some of chairman Jeff Long’s comments explaining its rationale.
Here are my three takeaways from the latest playoff rankings.
COMMITTEE SENDS MESSAGE BY ELEVATINGOREGON
First and foremost, 9-1 Oregon checked in at No. 2 this week, ahead of undefeated, defending national champion Florida State. If the season ended today, the only impact that would have is on which team wears the home or road jerseys in their semifinal game. But in the bigger picture, the committee sent its most definitive message to date that this is not the traditional AP and coaches polls.
“Committee looks beyond win-loss record and examines other factors that reflect a team's play. As it should be,” CFP executive director Bill Hancocktweeted shortly after the unveiling.
Both on television and in a teleconference afterward, Long said the vote between the two was extremely close but that ultimately Oregon’s trio of top-25 wins (No. 12 Michigan State, No. 11 UCLA and No. 23 Utah), with the latter two coming on the road, gave it the edge over FSU, with its pair of home wins against No. 18Notre Dame and No. 19 Clemson.
“Based on the committee's view about the strength of Florida State's schedule and their body of work compared to Oregon's strength of schedule and body of work, the committee voted that Oregon was No. 2,” said Long. “It was a very close call, but the committee placed significant value on Oregon's quality of wins against three top‑25 teams, two of which were on the road.“
Asked how the committee counterbalanced Oregon’s stronger set of wins with the fact that, unlike Florida State, it lost a game, at home to Arizona, Long noted the quality of the opponent (the Wildcats rose to No. 14 this week) and, as he’s done previously, alluded to theDucks’ offensive line injuries that night.
You have to be pretty good to remain undefeated this late in the season, as FSU is, but it’s no secret the ‘Noles have been far from dominant and, in fact, fortunate to escape against Clemson and Notre Dame, so I have no problem with the committee elevating the Ducks. It means they’re paying attention.
The committee also pulled a mild surprise in bumping TCU, not Alabama, up to No. 4. The two teams were in reverse order last week before the Frogs stomped a then-top-10 Kansas State team at home and the Tide survived then-16th-rankedLSU in overtime on the road. Again, the actual discrepancy doesn’t matter because Alabama can play its way into the top four this week when it hosts No. 1 Mississippi State, but it was interesting to hear Long’s explanation.
“I think these are very, very close teams, and that win and the way they won in comparison is what gave TCU an extremely slight edge over Alabama,” said Long.
That seems a bit contradictory. On one hand, the committee bestowed praise on Oregon for winning on the road but then in this case seemed to downplay just how hard it is to win at LSU, regardless of margin. That being said, I’ve had TCU higher than Alabama for weeks -- it has a better résumé to this point -- so perhaps it’s just righting a wrong.
THE TCU-BAYLOR DEBATE
Finally, it’s clear that TCU-Baylor is shaping up to be this year’s headache-inducing controversy if both continue to win. The Bears closed the gap this week on the Horned Frogs team they beat 61-58 on Oct. 11 but still trail by three spots. The majority of questions on Long’s teleconference Tuesday night dealt with the head-to-head debate.
“Head-to-head comes into play when all other things are equal,” said Long. “But at this point, three consecutive weeks now we’ve said their body of work, strength of schedule, is not the same.”
Asked what he’d tell Baylor fans, Long said: “We're not at the end of the season, so at this point in time, I'd tell them to continue to build their résumé with their remaining games left and make their case by their body of work and résumé.”
All along I’ve said that one of the dangers of doing these in-season rankings is that teams’ schedules aren’t necessarily aligned. TCU has already played all of the Big 12’s top teams. Baylor still has Kansas State waiting on Dec. 6. By season’s end, they will have essentially played 11 of the same 12 teams (nine Big 12 games, SMU and an FCS school each), at which point they may well be similar enough that head-to-head becomes a tiebreaker. Which means TCU, despite sitting at No. 4 right now, is no guarantee to finish there even if it wins its remaining games.
Of course, the one game that differs between them is that in non-conference play, TCU took on Minnesota while Baylor visited Buffalo. The Gophers, now 7-2, cracked the committee’s top 25 this week. Ohio State, which rose to No. 8 this week and also needs to beef up its résumé, plays Minnesota this week as well.
In this strange new world, Minnesota’s performance down the stretch may play a significant role in shaping the College Football Playoff field.
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